What would happen if a major oil-refining country were unable to import crude oil?

Recently, a piece of news has been circulating widely online: the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation announced that the number of refineries in China with an annual capacity of 10 million tons or more has risen to 32, with total refining capacity reaching 920 million tons per year. As a result, China has become the world’s largest refiner, marking a new milestone in the high-quality development of its petroleum industry.

Upon its release, the news quickly drew widespread attention and sparked intense debate. At the same time, many imaginative netizens raised a pertinent question: China is a major oil importer, and the more it refines, the more oil it must import. Against this backdrop, how long could China hold out if it were suddenly unable to import oil?

To be frank, this is a highly speculative question. After some reflection, I’ve decided to address it from two perspectives: under what circumstances would China be completely unable to import oil, and, if that were to happen, how long could China’s strategic petroleum reserves sustain the country?

First, let’s address the first point. Taking 2022 oil import data as an example, China imported 508.276 million tons of oil last year. Excluding a few minor exporters, only 22 countries accounted for the bulk of China’s imports, with eight of them accounting for the largest shares, in the following order: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Malaysia, Kuwait, and Angola.

So, even if we take a step back and assume that China and the United States were to descend into all‑out hostility in the future, with the U.S. rallying the aforementioned countries to impose an oil export embargo on China, Russia would still be unlikely to side with the U.S. Moreover, Russian oil is primarily transported by rail and pipeline—channels that the U.S. cannot block.

Of course, the United States cannot impose a blockade on Russia. However, if other countries were drawn into its orbit—or if the U.S. were to seal off China’s maritime shipping routes from the Middle East and Africa—China’s oil imports would inevitably suffer a severe blow. As a major oil‑importing nation, this would naturally have a profound impact.